#### Predicting Movie Genres Based on Plot Summaries

This project explores several Machine Learning methods to predict movie genres based on plot summaries. Naive Bayes, Word2Vec+XGBoost and Recurrent Neural Networks are used for text classification, while K-binary transformation, rank method and probabilistic classification with learned probability …

#### Using probabilistic programs as proposals

Monte Carlo inference has asymptotic guarantees, but can be slow when using generic proposals. Handcrafted proposals that rely on user knowledge about the posterior distribution can be efficient, but are difficult to derive and implement. This paper proposes to let users express their posterior kno…

#### Fairness in Supervised Learning: An Information Theoretic Approach

Automated decision making systems are increasingly being used in real-world applications. In these systems for the most part, the decision rules are derived by minimizing the training error on the available historical data. Therefore, if there is a bias related to a sensitive attribute such as gend…

#### A Computational Model of Commonsense Moral Decision Making

We introduce a new computational model of moral decision making, drawing on a recent theory of commonsense moral learning via social dynamics. Our model describes moral dilemmas as a utility function that computes trade-offs in values over abstract moral dimensions, which provide interpretable para…

#### Asynchronous Stochastic Variational Inference

Stochastic variational inference (SVI) employs stochastic optimization to scale up Bayesian computation to massive data. Since SVI is at its core a stochastic gradient-based algorithm, horizontal parallelism can be harnessed to allow larger scale inference. We propose a lock-free parallel implement…

#### Introspective Classification with Convolutional Nets

Bayes CIFAR Convolutional Neural Network MNIST

We propose introspective convolutional networks (ICN) that emphasize the importance of having convolutional neural networks empowered with generative capabilities. We employ a reclassification-by-synthesis algorithm to perform training using a formulation stemmed from the Bayes theory. Our ICN trie…

#### Accurate Bayesian Data Classification without Hyperparameter Cross-validation

We extend the standard Bayesian multivariate Gaussian generative data classifier by considering a generalization of the conjugate, normal-Wishart prior distribution and by deriving the hyperparameters analytically via evidence maximization. The behaviour of the optimal hyperparameters is explored i…

#### Traffic Flow Forecasting Using a Spatio-Temporal Bayesian Network Predictor

A novel predictor for traffic flow forecasting, namely spatio-temporal Bayesian network predictor, is proposed. Unlike existing methods, our approach incorporates all the spatial and temporal information available in a transportation network to carry our traffic flow forecasting of the current site…

#### Obtaining Accurate Probabilistic Causal Inference by Post-Processing Calibration

Discovery of an accurate causal Bayesian network structure from observational data can be useful in many areas of science. Often the discoveries are made under uncertainty, which can be expressed as probabilities. To guide the use of such discoveries, including directing further investigation, it i…

#### Improvements to Inference Compilation for Probabilistic Programming in Large-Scale Scientific Simulators

We consider the problem of Bayesian inference in the family of probabilistic models implicitly defined by stochastic generative models of data. In scientific fields ranging from population biology to cosmology, low-level mechanistic components are composed to create complex generative models. These…

#### Dynamic classifier chains for multi-label learning

In this paper, we deal with the task of building a dynamic ensemble of chain classifiers for multi-label classification. To do so, we proposed two concepts of classifier chains algorithms that are able to change label order of the chain without rebuilding the entire model. Such modes allows anticip…

#### Bayesian Group Decisions: Algorithms and Complexity

We address the computations that Bayesian agents undertake to realize their optimal actions, as they repeatedly observe each other’s actions, following an initial private observation. We use iterated eliminations of infeasible signals (IEIS) to model the thinking process as well as the calcul…

#### Informational Neurobayesian Approach to Neural Networks Training. Opportunities and Prospects

A study of the classification problem in context of information theory is presented in the paper. Current research in that field is focused on optimisation and bayesian approach. Although that gives satisfying results, they require a vast amount of data and computations to train on. Authors propose…

#### Decomposition of Uncertainty for Active Learning and Reliable Reinforcement Learning in Stochastic Systems

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with latent variables are probabilistic models which can automatically identify complex stochastic patterns in the data. We study in these models a decomposition of predictive uncertainty into its epistemic and aleatoric components. We show how such a decomposition a…

#### A Bayesian Nonparametric Method for Clustering Imputation, and Forecasting in Multivariate Time Series

This article proposes a Bayesian nonparametric method for forecasting, imputation, and clustering in sparsely observed, multivariate time series. The method is appropriate for jointly modeling hundreds of time series with widely varying, non-stationary dynamics. Given a collection of $N$ time serie…

#### Map-based Multi-Policy Reinforcement Learning: Enhancing Adaptability of Robots by Deep Reinforcement Learning

In order for robots to perform mission-critical tasks, it is essential that they are able to quickly adapt to changes in their environment as well as to injuries and or other bodily changes. Deep reinforcement learning has been shown to be successful in training robot control policies for operation…

#### Understanding Generalization and Stochastic Gradient Descent

This paper tackles two related questions at the heart of machine learning; how can we predict if a minimum will generalize to the test set, and why does stochastic gradient descent find minima that generalize well? Our work is inspired by Zhang et al. (2017), who showed deep networks can easily mem…

#### Learning to Transfer Initializations for Bayesian Hyperparameter Optimization

Hyperparameter optimization undergoes extensive evaluations of validation errors in order to find the best configuration of hyperparameters. Bayesian optimization is now popular for hyperparameter optimization, since it reduces the number of validation error evaluations required. Suppose that we ar…

#### Causal Rule Sets for Identifying Subgroups with Enhanced Treatment Effect

We introduce a novel generative model for interpretable subgroup analysis for causal inference applications, Causal Rule Sets (CRS). A CRS model uses a small set of short rules to capture a subgroup where the average treatment effect is elevated compared to the entire population. We present a Bayes…

#### Langevin Dynamics with Continuous Tempering for Training Deep Neural Networks

Minimizing non-convex and high-dimensional objective functions is challenging, especially when training modern deep neural networks. In this paper, a novel approach is proposed which divides the training process into two consecutive phases to obtain better generalization performance: Bayesian sampl…

#### Bayesian Alignments of Warped Multi-Output Gaussian Processes

We present a Bayesian extension to convolution processes which defines a representation between multiple functions by an embedding in a shared latent space. The proposed model allows for both arbitrary alignments of the inputs and and also non-parametric output warpings to transform the observation…

#### A GAMP Based Low Complexity Sparse Bayesian Learning Algorithm

In this paper, we present an algorithm for the sparse signal recovery problem that incorporates damped Gaussian generalized approximate message passing (GGAMP) into Expectation-Maximization (EM)-based sparse Bayesian learning (SBL). In particular, GGAMP is used to implement the E-step in SBL in pla…

#### Beyond Log-concavity: Provable Guarantees for Sampling Multi-modal Distributions using Simulated Tempering Langevin Monte Carlo

A key task in Bayesian statistics is sampling from distributions that are only specified up to a partition function (i.e., constant of proportionality). However, without any assumptions, sampling (even approximately) can be #P-hard, and few works have provided “beyond worst-case” guaran…

#### Learning Graphical Models from a Distributed Stream

A current challenge for data management systems is to support the construction and maintenance of machine learning models over data that is large, multi-dimensional, and evolving. While systems that could support these tasks are emerging, the need to scale to distributed, streaming data requires ne…

#### Learning Scalable Deep Kernels with Recurrent Structure

Bayes Gaussian Process gradient LSTM RNN speech

Many applications in speech, robotics, finance, and biology deal with sequential data, where ordering matters and recurrent structures are common. However, this structure cannot be easily captured by standard kernel functions. To model such structure, we propose expressive closed-form kernel functi…